Copyright 2007-2009 iamned.com financial opinions updated daily
| Archives 7/1/09
Tea Party Talking Points: Obama's War on the American Dream Snippet: Spending, Spending, Spending: President Obama spent nearly $800 billion on the stimulus bill and then proposed a budget that would increase spending by another $1 trillion... Bear Market Rally Snippet: With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) breaking below the 27 level, the underlying short-term trend appears bullish. But the major indices face potential overhead resistance... Why Gold’s Value Increases During the Later Stages of Deflation Snippet: Adrian Ash argues that gold’s value actually increases during periods of deflation: A New Short-Term Target For Stocks Snippet: Everything I look at tells me it's right to stay on the short side of the market. But it's been that way for six weeks, and so far it hasn't worked. Snippet: Cash Levels High, Investors Still Skeptical: Bullish Indicator? Snippet: The below chart graphs the cash allocation (red line), the S&P 500 Index (green line) and the 3-period moving average of the Bull/Bear Spread (white line)... The Great Bank Robbery: How the Federal Reserve is destroying America Snippet: ...the legitimacy of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is under attack. Perhaps the problem lies with the Fed. Art Cashin: Why Stocks Will Rally This Week Snippet: Job cuts by America's private employers were worse than expected in June — but planned layoffs fell for a fifth consecutive month, says a report from ADP Employer Services. What's it mean for stocks? The Economy: Why it feels even worse Snippet: In late October, CNN's Ali Velshi and Erica Fink looked at five key measures of the economy to see how bad it really was. Now, they look again at the CNN 'Real Feel Economic Index' and find it's tougher still. Global Wave Indicator Identifies Positive Trend for Stocks Snippet: The table below shows the performance of the Index in 15 complete economic cycles since 1921 and part of the current economic cycle. The performance Gold Breakout Above $1,000 Only a Question of Time Snippet: Gold is an international currency and store of value, not a commodity. Cash is king during deflation and Gold has been chosen as the best form of cash by civilizations over the past several thousand years. Major stock market indices have likely seen their highs for 2009 Snippet: The major indices including the Dow 30 Industrials and the S&P 500 have likely seen their highs for the year since a viable economic recovery is currently not on the horizon. George Soros: Obama Team Falls Short in Financial System Overhaul Snippet: ...the 79-year-old warned that Americans still have their head in the sand about the implications of the financial crisis and the prospects for their economic and political welfare. Exuberance in Commodities: How Long Will It Last? Snippet: Commodities have been staging a strong rally for the past few months, fueled by the expectation that government stimulus packages, extensive bailouts, and hundreds of billions of funds Stocks: Are summer doldrums here to stay? Snippet: Stocks started the year by shocking investors with big losses, then pleased them with a strong springtime rally. But in the last month, the once-thrilling stock market has been downright boring. $70 Oil: The New Normal? Snippet: But a consensus appears to have emerged that oil is overpriced and ready for a fall. The International Energy Agency released a report on June 29 showing weak demand. The Housing Chart Worth 1000 Words, UPDATED Snippet: Nationwide, prices are now down 33% from the peak. They'll likely be down 40%-50% before we're through. And they'll probably stay there for a while. Wednesday Outlook: Liquidity + BS = Positive Quarter Snippet:But, silly me, I forget that this is the quarter and mid-year end—there are bonuses to be had and bullish headlines to be written... Strategist: 'You'd Better Own Some Gold' Snippet: Stock markets are set to log their best quarter in 10 years. Should investors pour their money into equities? Unusual 'nested' patterns in indexes Snippet: Yesterday's session was a bit of a surprise in that the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 walked the entire range of support and resistance and then some before settling back to essentially unchanged. The Case Against Hyper Inflation Snippet: If the US Dollar does not fall, and the money supply shrinks because the Fed is mopping up liquidity, and if the volume of transactions falls, then the US might experience DEFLATION. Is a China Stock Bubble Forming? Snippet: With China one of the few economies that's showing an economic pulse, a lot of the cash that's been sitting on the sidelines is piling into almost anything Chinese, driving stocks to lofty valuations Banks Falling 23% Since May Foreshadow S&P 500 Slump Snippet: Declines of more than 20 percent in regional banks and homebuilders and the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual loss may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about to fizzle. It’s The Second Half — So Where’s The Recovery? Snippet: Calls for a 'second-half' recovery have been a common theme of this recession — and so far, have only underscored the degree to which forecasters underestimated the magnitude of this downturn. Enough With the 'Green Shoots': Earnings Will Be Market's True Test, Analyst Says Snippet: Despite a lousy finish, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15% in the second quarter, its best quarter in a decade. Feldstein Sees Renewed U.S. Slump After ‘Improvement’ Snippet: The U.S. economy will grow for a few quarters and then contract again... How Obama Blew His Credibility On The Economy Snippet: Six months into the Obama presidency and the New York Times is already running an autopsy analyzing how he could have been so wrong about the economy. Krugman: U.S. Headed for 'Jobless' Recovery Snippet: Nobel-Prize winning economist Paul Krugman said the nation is on course for a 'prolonged jobless' economic recovery unless the Obama administration steps in with a second round... U.S. Housing Market Deteriorates as Foreclosures Soar Snippet: Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008,... Fill or Kill: Strong Case We Don't Need Geithner's Toxic Debt Scheme Snippet: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will announce long-awaited details on the PPIP plan Wednesday or Thursday this week, according to CNBC. Emerging Markets Propel Global Rebound Snippet: Investors Hungry for Returns and Prospects for Growth Lead India (+49%) and Shanghai (+25%) to Big Gains Sitting In: Buying American is not all it’s cracked up to be Snippet: If I buy foreign goods that put food in the mouths of people who don’t talk and look like me is that being un-American? What is the moral achievement in boycotting a foreign... Unemployment, housing numbers offer bad news for incumbents Snippet: New unemployment and housing statistics will likely suggest more people will be out of both their jobs and their homes in November 2010, just as several lawmakers are asking to be reelected. Dollar at Risk of Breakdown (dailyFX.com) Snippet: ...Under this count, the rally from 1.3750 is wave 5 of an ending diagonal from 1.2454. The rally from 1.3750 itself is unfolding as a diagonal and price must stay above 1.3887 in order to keep this count valid... Trickle-Down Economics Fails to Deliver as Promised Snippet: Trickle-down economics, a centerpiece of conservative economic thinking for many decades, failed to deliver its promise of distributing wealth across the economy, a new paper from ... Mortgage Applications Fall 19%, Defying Obama Snippet: U.S. mortgage applications fell last week by the most since February, defying efforts by President Barack Obama’s administration to revive the housing market. 5 months and President Obama is a failure Snippet: ... the stimulus package through Congress, but since 6 million new jobs haven't been created in those 4 months then of course, President Obama is a failure. ... The Coming Fiscal Train Wreck Snippet: The Congressional Budget Office recently put together a document detailing the dreadful state of fiscal affairs. This chart shows the projections in their ... Snippet: Is the Oil Bubble Back? Snippet: As strong as stocks have been this quarter, oil’s performance has been even more eye-popping, with relative gains exceeding even those of the bubble era that peaked with $150 crude and $4 gasoline last summer. |